Tennessee Titans, Derrick Henry shock NFL with massive new contract

Tennessee Titans and Derrick Henry agree to a deal.

In a shocking development, the Tennessee Titans and Derrick Henry were actually able to get a long term deal done before the deadline.

Let’s start with the man who broke the news, because when Adam Schefter reports something, you would do well to listen…and when he reports something different the next day you should definitely listen.

Here are the two tweets in question:

Then just 33 hours later, Titans fans saw this:

This is great news for Titans fans. On one hand, paying running backs is generally such a bad idea for a team, and you would be hard-pressed to find a handful of examples to defend the idea over the last five years.

On the other hand, Titans finally have a true star in Derrick Henry and it is the first time that the Titans have had a focal point for attention AND been successful at the same time since Steve McNair.

Ryan Tannehill, Derrick Henry, Taylor Lewan, and Kevin Byard are all locked in on big deals now and young players like Harold Landry, Rashaan Evans, Jeffery Simmons, and A.J. Brown are cheap stars who help afford the Titans a chance to pay Henry.

When it was all said and done, Henry got $50 million over 4 years right before the deadline.

Biggest pros and cons

The good:

-The deal allows the Titans to keep Derrick Henry until he is 29, which means that Tennessee will have Henry for the entirety of his prime. In fact, this study suggests that his production should probably still be close to what he did at age 22-23.

-Every move the Titans have made this offseason is to bring back or improve what made them great last year: running the ball, vertical aggression in the passing game, lots of play action. This was the final piece to making this a long term plan to build around and not a short term plan that might have to change in 2021.

The bad:

-Even though history shows production doesn’t really become a problem until an RB hits 30, the fact is that paying RBs in the past has hurt teams badly. Maybe in an era where cap space is more myth than fact (although we will see about 2021) it won’t matter, but this would have to be the exception.

-For all of Henry’s dominance the last 22ish games, there was a time in the not so distant past where Henry didn’t look like the running back of the future. Then Eddie George intervened, but it isn’t like Henry has been an elite player his entire career.

Comparing Derrick Henry’s new deal to other RBs

This was a great deal for Jon Robinson and I say that not only as someone who has a ton of respect for the GM, but as someone who hates the idea of paying running backs.

However, it does look like this is a deal below market value or at least below what the market value for a player like Henry will cost in a few years.

First, let’s take a look at the AAV (Average Annual Value) Derrick Henry’s deal, here are the top RBs in the NFL in AAV for the 2020 season:

-Christian McCaffery: $16 million AAV

-Zeke Elliott: $15 million

-Le’Veon Bell: $13.1 million

-David Johnson: $13 million

-Derrick Henry: $12.5 million

Just as a different look, here are the RBs who could reset the market before the end of this deal:

-Saquon Barkley

-Josh Jacobs

-Aaron Jones

-Dalvin Cook

-Alvin Kamara

-Nick Chubb

So there is a very real chance that by the end of this contract, Derrick Henry is barely one of the top-10 highest-paid RBs in the NFL.

For the centerpiece of the Titans offense, that is a small price to pay and it is a price that should mostly be paid upfront as far as the guarantees are concerned.