The Tennessee Titans actually got a steal with Tannehill.
Before we get to the Titans quarterback, this has to start with the historic contract that Patrick Mahomes signed yesterday.
When I say historic, I don’t mean “Wow, what a good deal for a young quarterback!” I mean, “Wow, Mahomes just agreed to make half a billion dollars before he turns 35.”
On top of his current deal, Mahomes will be under contract for $450 million over 10 years. That means that for the next dozen years the Kansas City Chiefs will have their quarterback (barring negotiating a new deal which he will almost certainly do if the market passes him).
To put that in perspective, Adam Schefter posted a great graphic:
Patrick Mahomes signed a 10-year, $450 million extension that could be worth up to $503 million, per sources. The extension includes a $141.48 million injury guarantee, as well as a no-trade clause. It marks the first time an NFL player has had sports’ most lucrative deal. pic.twitter.com/kohX8rFSFN
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) July 7, 2020
Great for Mahomes and great for the NFL, but why is this the start to a story about Ryan Tannehill?
Well, you may remember that the Titans were faced with a dilemma this offseason about how they should manage Tannehill and Derrick Henry before free agency. Both were set to hit the market and the Titans didn’t have enough cap to spend on them and be aggressive in free agency.
Ultimately the Titans decided to lock in Derrick Henry with a franchise tag given the nature and market of the RB position, and lock Ryan Tannehill up with a big contract.
So why the big deal?
At the time, people were…dumb sounds too strong…less than smart? About what the market value for Ryan Tannehill would be and what the future looked like if the Titans gave him the franchise tag.
Statements like this were made after Tannehill deal:
"Tannehill’s career prior to his arrival in Tennessee showed that he’s an average starter at best. Unfortunately for Titans fans, they’re paying him like he’s one of the best."
I will talk about what the new “average” expectation should be for Tannehill a little later, but let’s talk about the “paying him like he’s one of the best” part of that quote.
Since this deal was signed, two things have happened that most people could see coming.
-Patrick Mahomes obviously signed his deal.
-Dak Prescott signed his franchise tag which is just a place holder for the next huge QB deal that is coming.
On top of that, we all know that Lamar Jackson is a season away from his huge contract as well. And the reason those things matter is because every new contract that gets signed, moves the goalposts on what constitutes a “big” deal for QBs.
Right now, Ryan Tannehill is the 9th highest paid QB in the NFL in terms of average annual value. But, if the Titans had given him the franchise tag and then waited until Mahomes, Prescott, Jackson, and let’s thrown in Baker Mayfield had all signed their new deals, then you are probably looking at a contract worth $35 million per season instead of $29.5 million.
“The new normal”
Will Ryan Tannehill be as good as he was in 2019? Probably not considering that he was playing as well as any QB in the NFL during his time as the Titans starter last year.
But, the question also has to be asked, will he be as “bad” as he was in Miami? The answer to that is of course not, and the reason is that Adam Gase (aka the destroyer of QBs and franchises) won’t be there to ruin him.
Let’s take those two extremes and run with it. Taking the 2018 and 2019 seasons and averaging the per game totals, this is what a mix of those two seasons projects for Tannehill in 2020:
2020: 275 completions on 413 attempts (66.7% completion), 3,393 yards, 34 TDs (30 passing, 4 rushing), and 11 INTs (if you want to talk about QB wins then it comes out to a 10-6 record there).
There wasn’t really another option for the Titans considering everything we have talked about, but even if there was the Titans made the right choice. Even if Tannehill regresses to this average, he is still one of the better QBs in the NFL.
In two years Tannehill probably won’t be among the top-12 QBs in the NFL in average salary and even if he was, that is money well spent considering what the Titans looked like before him. This new deal with Mahomes shows that QBs are expensive and regardless of what other teams think, the front office of the Titans has to do what they think is best.
In the same way that Kansas City traded up for a guy that many thought was a project and who probably wasn’t worth what they gave up, the Titans gave a good contract to a player that they believe is the perfect fit in their system.