Is Larry Warford worth the potential headache for the Tennessee Titans in free agency?
The Tennessee Titans have made sure that they have plenty of cap room to sign Jadeveon Clowney, but now something interesting has happened.
Yesterday the New Orleans Saints cut Pro Bowl right guard Larry Warford for cap space after drafting an interior offensive lineman in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft.
Titans fans shouldn’t be focused on signing a guard at this point in the offseason because the front office seems to be fine with rolling with Nate Davis and Rodger Saffold.
That is fair considering how they finished last season, but Larry Warford may be too good to ignore. Especially considering that he is on a stretch where he has gone to three straight Pro Bowls, it is fair to wonder if he appeals to the Titans.
His experience, athleticism and pure power would be appreciated by this team and for a front office who has preached constantly getting better, are we sure that he wouldn’t be an option in Nashville?
First and foremost though, you don’t want to lose Jadeveon Clowney while you chase Warford, so how much money can they actually throw around at the guard?
Jadeveon Clowney’s contract range
To know how much money you can spend on Warford, you have to know two things.
First, how much cap space do the Titans have? Well according to OTC, they are sitting $21.3 million which will probably shift to about $18 million after the draft class is fully signed.
Secondly, you have to know what the Titans are willing to give Clowney.
I am going to say that if the rumors of a 1-year deal are true, that a deal for Clowney will cost the Titans something in the range of $12-15 million.
That means that a deal for Warford would probably have to be somewhere in the range of $3-6 million for 2020.
Now, that doesn’t make this impossible but it makes it very tricky. Instead of being able to offer him a lump sum of money for one year, that probably means that Warford would be looking at a multi-year deal with the Titans where he took a little bit less upfront and made more in years 2 and 3.
How to structure Warford’s contract
Before he was cut by the Saints, Warford’s contract netted him an AAV of $8.5 million per year. A far cry from what the Tennessee Titans can feasibly offer.
Well, I say that but the cap is a myth and through some negotiation there is a chance that you can hit that number.
Looking at this chart, I believe that this means that Warford will make just over $5 million from the Saints in 2020 despite his cut. If that is true, then what about a three-year deal that looks like this:
-$3 million in 2020 (all GTD)
-$11 million in 2021 (75% GTD)
-$12 million in 2022 (50% GTD)
That nets out to be a 3 year, $26 million deal. That means that he would top his former AAV and he would get over $17 million GTD over the course of the deal and all of that would be in Tennessee where he wouldn’t have to worry about taxes.
The Titans would get Warford until he is 31, and you know they would feel comfortable with that given that they just gave Rodger Saffold a big 4-year deal last year when he was 30.
But what about Nate Davis? Didn’t they spend a top-100 pick on him so that he could be the long term starter?
What about Nate Davis?
There might be some pushback on this, but I don’t think that Nate Davis has to be a starter to make the 3rd round pick in 2019 worth the squeeze.
The Titans couldn’t have known that they were going to have a chance at a Pro Bowl guard down the line and even if they could, what was the plan going into the 2019 season? Start Kevin Pamphile at right guard?
Nate Davis was both a value and a necessity for the Titans and he was part of a line that blocked for the best running back in the NFL in 2019, so there is no way that you can look at that pick as a bust.
However, putting Davis on the bench and teaching him left and right guard so that he can eventually take over either spot, makes a lot of sense.
At worst he turns into an incredibly cheap backup guard with starting experience and upside. At best, you get a guard who gets to really iron out the fundamentals and learn from two of the best while waiting for his turn to start again.
The years of Jamil Douglas seeing snaps should be done and the Titans could make sure that they are three deep at guard and tackle by making this move, which has to be important on a team that seems more committed to running the ball now than ever before.
How this makes Isaiah Wilson look better.
One thing that isn’t immediately evident is how this will make Isaiah Wilson look better.
The rookie is going to struggle in the pass game and his run game work isn’t as sharp as people assume. However, some of his struggles as a run blocker come from inconsistency beside him at right guard.
If the Titans signed Warford then they would get a guy who has had 950+ snaps in each of the last four years and someone who is the model of consistency. That stability could really help a rookie who could be thrust into the lineup too soon.
As a pass protector, there would also be much less reason to worry about helping inside if the Titans had Warford instead of Davis, given how much Davis has struggled to anchor in pass protection. That means that it isn’t such a huge deal that Wilson can’t set against speed rushers without cheating to the outside.
Simply put, Warford could do more than his fair share in a lot of these situations and Wilson could just worry about the most simplistic part of the game while putting the rest on the veteran’s shoulders. Win-win.