Aug 30, 2012; Nashville, TN, USA; Tennessee Titans defensive tackle Mike Martin (67) puts pressure on New Orleans Saints quarterback Sean Canfield (4) during the first half of a preseason game at LP Field. Tennessee won 10 to 6. Mandatory Credit: Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports

This past year, the Tennessee Titans selected three players in the draft that vastly outperformed early expectations. The first two, Kendall Wright and Zach Brown, have gotten a lot of attention for their play, and rightly so. But in my mind, the most impressive player from this year’s draft was 3rd pick Mike Martin, defensive tackle out of University of Michigan.

Mike Martin came into a crowded field at defensive tackle; Jurrell Casey, our outstanding 3rd round pick in 2011, had locked down the starting nose tackle spot. SenDerrick Marks looked like he had finally turned the corner in the preseason and locked down the undertackle spot. Finally, Karl Klug was supposed to be our pass rushing specialist, a high impact rotational player. Unfortunately for the Titans, neither Marks nor Klug made nearly the impact we had hoped for.

But a silver lining was found – rookie Mike Martin. I, along with most, believed Martin would be a “control the interior” power tackle, fantastic at eating double teams and stopping the run. What I didn’t expect was the skill he showed as a pass rusher, and the multitude of ways he would accomplish that. But should we have been?

Year in Review

Martin spent most of the year operating as the 3rd defensive tackle in our rotation, behind starters SenDerrick Marks and Jurrell Casey. But in his limited role, he was arguably the best among those three- PFF tracked him as our best interior pass rusher, accumulating 15 hurries, 8 hits, and 3 sacks in 249 passrushes. In fact, this ranked second on our team in percentage terms, behind only Derrick Morgan (who was, according to their metrics, one of the best defensive ends in the league).

What was surprising to was his low number of plays- Martin’s playcount, tracked by MusicCityMiracles, continuously yoyo-ed throughout the season, seemingly without rhyme or reason. One week he’d play 60% of our snaps, and next week he’d be down to 30%. I think the coaches held on too long to the idea of SenDerrick Marks as a starting defensive tackle; he showed immense flashes during the preseason, then suffered a few nagging injuries that appear to hold him down the rest of the year. What’s clear is that, when Martin was in, he outplayed Marks. Hopefully the coaches will see that when they study this year’s game tape, and use him accordingly.

Martin’s impact, however, wasn’t just limited to the pass rush. The combo of Casey and Martin were by far the best at run stopping on the team. Both players generally command a double team against the run, and when both are in we see a lot less movement backwards, and our linebackers going unblocked on a regular basis. Unless we see a free agent or high pick at defensive tackle come in, I’m guessing that against any power run team, these two will be on the field together a lot more.

Looking Forward

Mike Martin appears to have a very bright future with the Titans; he’s clearly shown enough ability to get a shot at starting, and at minimum, he’ll be a heavy part of our rotation. He does have two things working against him. First, Jurrell Casey has clearly locked down the nose tackle position in our 4-3; there is very little chance that Martin could take that position, given Casey’s play. Second, Martin’s current skillset make him unsuited to start at the UT position in our 4-3; if he wants to secure that starting spot, he needs to continue to improve his pass rushing ability, and expand his limited arsenal of moves.

Martin currently relies too heavily on his abilities to bull-rush and control the offensive lineman’s movement to create pressure; while he adds value on every play by pushing his blocker backwards and collapsing the pocket (shown by the number of pressures he was credited with), only on a few plays against physically weak guards will he create the sack on his own (imagine the [too common] plays where Amano just gets thrown backwards by the opposing tackle).

In the run game, there’s not much more you could ask for. Martin has an astounding ability to hold his ground in the middle, especially against power runs. He could improve slightly in holding ground when he has to move his feet (against outside zone runs, tosses, etc.), but he still does an excellent job. One thing I’d like to see more is penetration- Casey has shown an excellent ability to slip his blocker on a play or two a game and blow up the running back, and if Martin could do that on a more consistent basis, our run defense would be a lot scarier.

The final question is whether Martin should be a starter for us next year and that’s a difficult question. If we can continue our run of drafting excellent defensive tackles in the middle rounds, my answer is yes- in his time on the field, Martin has shown more than enough to be a starter, and enough flashes to convince me he could one day be a dominant UT. I don’t think he’ll ever become a Melton/Kevin Williams type UT, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he makes enough strides to become a 6 sack a year player, and with his dominance in the run game, that would be one hell of a starter.

Grade:  A-

Tune in Thursday for DT Mike Martin’s review

Tennessee Titans quarterback Matt Hasselbeck (8) takes a snap from center Fernando Velasco (61)

If I Were GM Part I: Interior Offensive Line

            This is the start of the other series I’ll be writing about the Titans leading up to the draft- “If I were GM”.  Free Agency, the Draft, contract negotiations, and even coach hiring should all make an appearance.  But today we’ll start with the most obvious weakness on our team- the interior offensive line.

One of the biggest WTHs of this team is the interior Oline- with a speedster running back and a young QB, plowing resources into the interior Oline should be a no brainer.  CJ2K is a back that NEEDS a fantastic Oline; if you give a hole that gets a normal runningback 5 yards, CJ will take it 20.  If a normal back gets 10, CJ gets the 80 yard TD.  On the other hand, he has no leg power; once he’s been hit well, he’s going down.  He can’t take a 2-yard gain for 5, or run straight into no holes and drag people for 5 yards.  Giving him 50 million and then skimping on the interior offensive line is like buying a Maserati in New York City.

Add in a young QB, and it really becomes shocking.  Locker has essentially had no run game to rely on this entire year.  The only time the run game was decent was when he was injured; before that, Palmer’s switch to a zone system got us nothing, and once Locker came back, 3 more Olineman went down.  But look at a QB like Russell Wilson; he leaned very heavily on “Beast Mode” and the run game early in the year, and is now playing fantastic.  Why, you ask?  Because he could lean on the run game, he (and the Seattle coaches) could focus on improving his skillset and knowledge one step at a time.

Russell Wilson wasn’t asked to carry his entire team at the beginning of the season; he still isn’t now.  Rather, he was asked to acquire/improve/perfect one aspect of his performance each game- first focus on the play action plays, then work on the short timing passes, then on the 2 minute drill, then on mid range timing, etc, etc.  In apposite, Locker has essentially had the entire playbook dumped on him, and been asked to power the whole damn team.  Not only is that a recipe for disaster, it’s going to kill Locker’s development.  Rather than being able to focus in on each piece, and perfect them, he has to try and improve at everything all at once.

So that’s why the interior Oline is our biggest weakness, and we need to fix it.  CJ’s value is drastically limited, Locker is being badly developed and overwhelmed, and honestly, we just suck.  Oh, and let’s not forget that when we suck on offense, the defense ends up on the field for 40 minutes each game.

Guard

     Right Guard is, in my opinion, the biggest hole on our team.  This is where I would go all out this offseason- go for a high level free agent, or spend a 1st/2nd in the draft.  Leroy Harris is a bum that’s just never improved, Deuce Lutui is average, and everyone behind that (as the last few games have shown) is crap.  Luckily, there are two premier options available in this year’s draft; the fantastic Andy Levitre, who’ll be entering free agency from the Bills, and Chance Warmack, perhaps the highest rated guard to come out of college since our own Steve Hutchinson.

Between the two, I’d go with Levitre.  First and foremost, Levitre is a proven commodity; the Bills offensive line has been a top pass blocking unit for years, even with its troubles at left tackle, and the Levitre-Wood combo has paved the way for Fred Jackson to resurrect his career and CJ Spiller to average an NFL record 6.5 yards a carry.  We know we’re getting a premier performer in Levitre.

Second, as good as Warmack is, I’m not comfortable taking him in the top 10.  If we were picking around 15, it would be a different story.  But with the high end talent available along the defensive line this year, I’d rather grab a prospect like Bjoern Werner or Demontre Moore, giving us a real rotation at defensive end and a replacement if Morgan walks after the 2013 season.

Below these two are actually a number of options that would significantly improve our interior offensive line: Matt Slauson, Ramon Foster, and Louis Vasquez are all above average starters that we could plug in and not worry for years.  Chilo Rachal is a young guy who wasn’t ready when he came into the league, but has stepped up in Chicago this year and still has immense physical potential, but he’s riskier than the previous three.

At left guard, Hutchinson was good enough– just like Mawae, he’s definitely not playing like he used to, but his play was more than acceptable, especially in “good stretch” of our run game this year.  At the same time, he’s only got one year left on the contract he signed with us, and should definitely retire at the end of that contract.  If we don’t cut Amano, I think he could make a solid move back to left guard- he was an above average left guard when Mawae was here, and his physical skillset is clearly better suited to guard.

But, as always, accepting Amano is accepting the bare minimum.  And the only interior Olineman on our team I’m sold on right now is Velasco, who should be at center.  This year’s guard class is strong from top to bottom, and I’d prefer to see us take at least a 4-5th (like Alvin Bailey) round developmental prospect to replace Hutchinson next year- it’ll let us save a hefty amount of money by cutting Amano, and give us a player with some upside.  Amano is a mediocre starter (maybe slightly above average at guard), and that’s all he’ll ever be.  I’d rather gamble on someone new developing behind Hutchinson (and learning from three hall of famers) than stick with average Amano.

Center

     Center is our next weakness, in a way.  Luckily, there is a very simple solution for us- resign Fernando Velasco.  After a few shaky games at the beginning of the year, Velasco has turned into a legitimate top-10 center in the league.  His progress and abilities have been noted by PFF and Football Outsiders, and resigning him would finally solidify a position of immense frustration.  Under NO circumstances do we allow Eugene Amano to come back and suck it up.  If we don’t cut Amano (which we should), then we damn well better put him back at guard.

Behind this are not many good options; Evan Dietrich-Smith, Phil Costa, and Brian De La Puente are the only options I’d pursue in free agentcy.  Of those three, the last two are restricted free agents (although they were undrafted, so unless a higher tender comes down, we can snipe them).  All three look to be slightly above average players.  While that’s nothing to write home about, it’s certainly better than Amano.  I still think, however, that resigning Velasco is the best option.  He’s looked as good, if not better, than these three, and will probably cost the same, if not less.

This draft is not so fantastic, especially at the top end, for centers.  Barrett Jones would be fantastic, but he’s projected to go in the 20-35 range; too late for our first round, but too early for our second round.   Khaled Holmes of USC is a projected 2-3 pick, but I’m not sold on him at all.  There are some mildly intriguing guys late in the draft, like the enormous Graham Pocic, but not many centers with the power you’d like to see in our man-blocking run game.

Retaining Velasco is the safest and, likely, highest value option we have.  I’ll be very disappointed if we let him get away in free agency, and even more disappointed if we stick with Eugene Amano.  As helpful as having a veteran center who can call adjustments and read defenses is, Amano’s physical talent just isn’t there.  The value he could give Locker in the passing game doesn’t offset his inability to get push in the run game, and his tendency to get completely blown up by a pass rusher 1-2 times a game.

Apr 26, 2012; New York, NY, USA; NFL shield logo before the 2012 NFL Draft.  Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports

Valuing Positions/Players- The Basics

Today’s article is going to be the start of a series I’ll write about drafting- who teams should target, how they should value players, when they should trade, etc.  Since the Titans are the team I know the most about, I’m going to use this upcoming draft as a template.

So let’s start with the basics- how do you assign value to positions/players in the draft?  A lot of people, especially pundits, emphasize the BPA (Best Player Available) draft strategy, and there is something to be said for this.  But when pundits use it, they usually use it in a very misguided way; the simple fact is that the BPA to your team is probably not the BPA to the majority of other teams.  Why?  Because the schemes your team runs on offense and defense can vastly change the likely value of a player.

Take, for instance, two of the top defensive ends in the draft: Sam Montgomery and Barkevious Mingo.  Both players have about equal draft rankings- likely top 15 picks.  But, ceteris paribus, the Titans would place a 2nd round value on Mingo, and a top 15 value on Montgomery.  That’s the difference between the 4-3 and 3-4 defenses; Mingo is far too small and weak to be an every-down 4-3 end, but could be an every-down 3-4 OLB.  Even though Mingo would be an impact player for the Titans as a pass rusher, his potential value is much lower, simply because in a 4-3 (outside of the wide 9 system) he couldn’t be an every-down player.  The “fit” of a player, regardless of his raw talent, can change his value to you immensely.

Yes, the difference between the 4-3 and 3-4 is one of the most obvious.  But these sort of valuation differences occur everywhere: man v. zone v. hybrid corners, zone v. man blocking OLineman & RBs (CJ cannot run in a multiple-read zone scheme for his life), 4-3 NT v. UT, Right Def. End v. Left Def. End.  Once you add in the idiosyncrasies of every coordinator’s system, you’re looking at a lot of variation.

Next, you face the risk-reward matrix.  In all rounds, teams face a tradeoff between “developmental” prospects and “contributors” (players with lower potential, but less risk).  Anyone remember the athletic wonder known as Chris Henry and his exact opposite, Lendale White?  This is just player valuation under the BPA method; once you add in all the factors that determine “need”, the draft board changes even more dramatically.

“Need”, just like talent, has a lot of factors.  Of obvious importance are the holes on your team.  The Titans, for instance, would be insane to take an OLB in the first four rounds- both SLB and WLB have clear starters, and the only reason we’d draft someone there is for depth.  On the other hand, Leroy Harris, Fernando Velasco, and Deuce Lutui will be free agents, Amano (besides being terrible) is coming back from a major injury, and Steve Hutchinson is 36; clearly we have holes to be filled on the interior.

Need also includes age- if you don’t forecast retirements and age related dropoff of your current players, you end up like the Chiefs (who had one of the best Offensive Lines of all time in the early and mid ‘00s, but has had awful to mediocre lines since).  Then you take into account things like potential free agents over the next few years (yours and everyone else’s), the salary cap and your situation, likelihood of injury etc.  “Need” clearly adds an enormous amount of complexity into your draft valuations.

But to me, “Need” is the far more interesting category than mere “Talent” because it incorporates what I think is perhaps the most overlooked part of football- “schematic necessity”.  SN refers to the relative value of positions within the scheme you run (and is generally a much larger factor for defenses).  This will likely be the subject of my next article in this series, but for an overview, look at my article from Nov 18th “Colin McCarthy and the Two-Deep Zone” .

Finally, you have to evaluate the distribution of talent in the draft (and the next few drafts).  Is there a big dropoff from the top 5 picks, but relatively constant from 6-20? Well if we’re at pick six, we should trade up (for one of those top 5) or down if we want to maximize value.  Is defensive end really deep with talent this draft, but defensive tackle has only two high level players?  Do you think you can find “developmental” prospects at your positions of need, or are the only late rounders at those positions “contributors”, which you already have?  I’ll take a look at the upcoming draft through this lens in a future article.

These are the basics of draft valuation: talent, need, and distribution.  I think you could write a book on each, and we’ll dive into some of the intricacies leading up to the next draft.  By the end of this series, I’m hoping to have applied all of this to the Titans, and make some predictions about our choices come April.

Myles M.