Gamblin’ With Jorge: Betting the Titans and Other Week 4 Matchups
By Jorge
Well, week 3 picks didn’t go exactly as I had planned, as I ended up going 2-3 in my first weekly column. Having said that, I did mention that I wouldn’t be betting on the Titans, and considering that the Denver payout was $160, technically I was up $60 right??? Well, if you’re not buying that logic, I don’t blame you, but you can’t win ‘em all. Like week 1 of the regular season, the beauty with gambling is that every week is a clean slate, and I feel great about this week; especially considering the value our Titans are getting against a JJ Watt-less Texans this week.
Titans at Texans
Spread: Texans -5
Money Line: +185/-215
Over/Under: 41
Gotta go with the Titans to win here, no doubt about that. The loss of JJ Watt is devastating to the Texans. While it unquestionable increases the changes of every other team in the AFC South to win the division, you hate to see that happen to a player of that caliber, regardless of the team. While Mariota has struggled in the first 3 weeks, so has Mr. Osweiler, arguably even more so, and the second half of last week further proved that the Titans defense is no joke. Plus, are the Titans better on the road?? Probably not, but let’s go with it. Call it wishful thinking but +185 is a great value. Unlike last week, I will be placing this bet on Sunday.
Seahawks at Jets
Spread: Hawks -2.5
Money Line: -145/+125
Over/Under: 40
By QBR, Mariota’s game was worse than Fitzy’s last week, but Fitzy threw 6 interceptions (his last 5 drives all ended with picks). That’s a tough game. I expect him to rebound here with a better performance, for sure. He’s a veteran. Having said that, when DangerRuss trots out there on one and a half knees on Sunday, his team will be playing hard for him. Plus, best defense in the NFL. Seattle covers here, should be an interesting game though.
Broncos at Buccaneers
Spread: Broncos -3
Money Line: -165/+145
Over/Under: 43
Hope you took my advice on the Broncos last week. It is always sweet to win a nice money line wager on the dog. Jameis has been struggling with interceptions, and Denver is pretty good at creating those. I love Denver here. After last week’s humbling performance, I’m going to chill on the “locks of the week”, but I must say I am very confident here.
Cowboys at 49ers
Spread: Boys -2
Money Line: -130/+110
Over/Under: 46
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Dak Prescott looks so good so far this year. He has yet to throw an interception, and has been able to continually move the ball down the field no matter who they’re playing. Dallas runs the ball too, as well as anyone in the league, and the 9ers can’t just load the box like they did against Case and the Rams. Dallas rolls by more than 2, as they try to keep up with Carson Wentz (God Bless America) and the Eagles.
Colt at Jaguars (London)
Spread: Colts -2.5
Money Line: -140/+120
Over/Under: 49
In the matchup of the other two AFC South powers, I think the Jags will take this one. Not sure how much “home field advantage” they have playing in London, but Jalen Ramsey has lived up to his billing thus far, and the Jags are getting desperate. The $20 on the money line isn’t worth 2.5 pts, so I’ll take them on the spread for a little cushion (plus, Luck is pretty pretttyyy prettaayy good in the end of game 2-minute drill).